The World Order in 2019 (I)
Written by Alfonso Elizondo
According to the leading commentators on world politics, 2019 will not be a year of radical changes, but the main trends of recent years will continue to determine the course of the year and will be put to the test. These dynamics can be reduced to three points: the competition between China and the US, the consolidation of a multipolar scenario and the rise of nationalist populism.
The competition between China and the US has been mainly in the area of trade, but it is expected that in 2019 this competition will move to the technological level in areas such as the development of 5G technology or the space race. Another aspect of this competition is the peace process involving Korea, which will not be solved as long as China and the United States are still in conflict. The most dangerous thing would be for the tension between the two giants to show up in the South China region or in the Taiwan Strait.
The world that was formerly dominated by a single power will move towards a multipolar scenario because Russia is seeking joint global leadership with the US and China. In addition to these three major actors, there are minor powers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, plus others such as Japan, Qatar and Ethiopia.
It is predicted that nationalist populism, which has already established itself as a global phenomenon, will be put to the test in 2019. In Latin America, López Obrador in Mexico and Bolsonaro in Brazil began their tenure with opposing ideologies but with similar forms of populism. The United Kingdom faces Brexit and Brussels fears the likely rise of the far right in the European elections and the crisis that may come from Italy. Modi and Netanyahu will also be tested at the polls, while the US will be caught up in the 2020 presidential election process.
Meanwhile, Europe is facing a crucial year when the idea of the European Union itself will be discussed, with the following issues standing out:
1.- The strengthening of the right in the European elections in May and in various national and regional elections.
2.- The uncertain path of Brexit.
3.- The French-German axis in the face of the challenges that could be posed by Italy or the Eastern countries.
In addition to that, Russia is still trying to demonstrate that it is once again the power it once was, even though it may be at a high cost internally, which is why it is important to watch all these trends:
1.- Increased tension between Russia and the West, with clashes over Ukraine, the Baltic Sea or at the INF Treaty negotiating table.
2.- The Kremlin has to deal with Russia’s economic stagnation and the growing discontent of the population. 3.- Its ambition to establish itself as a leading player in the Middle East and Asia.
Addendum: In the next instalment we will summarize the geopolitical forecasts for the Middle East and the Maghreb.
According to the leading commentators on world politics, 2019 will not be a year of radical changes, but the main trends of recent years will continue to determine the course of the year and will be put to the test. These dynamics can be reduced to three points: the competition between China and the US, the consolidation of a multipolar scenario and the rise of nationalist populism.
The competition between China and the US has been mainly in the area of trade, but it is expected that in 2019 this competition will move to the technological level in areas such as the development of 5G technology or the space race. Another aspect of this competition is the peace process involving Korea, which will not be solved as long as China and the United States are still in conflict. The most dangerous thing would be for the tension between the two giants to show up in the South China region or in the Taiwan Strait.
The world that was formerly dominated by a single power will move towards a multipolar scenario because Russia is seeking joint global leadership with the US and China. In addition to these three major actors, there are minor powers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, plus others such as Japan, Qatar and Ethiopia.
It is predicted that nationalist populism, which has already established itself as a global phenomenon, will be put to the test in 2019. In Latin America, López Obrador in Mexico and Bolsonaro in Brazil began their tenure with opposing ideologies but with similar forms of populism. The United Kingdom faces Brexit and Brussels fears the likely rise of the far right in the European elections and the crisis that may come from Italy. Modi and Netanyahu will also be tested at the polls, while the US will be caught up in the 2020 presidential election process.
Meanwhile, Europe is facing a crucial year when the idea of the European Union itself will be discussed, with the following issues standing out: 1.- The strengthening of the right in the European elections in May and in various national and regional elections. 2.- The uncertain path of Brexit. 3.- The French-German axis in the face of the challenges that could be posed by Italy or the Eastern countries.
In addition to that, Russia is still trying to demonstrate that it is once again the power it once was, even though it may be at a high cost internally, which is why it is important to watch all these trends:
1.- Increased tension between Russia and the West, with clashes over Ukraine, the Baltic Sea or at the INF Treaty negotiating table. 2.- The Kremlin has to deal with Russia’s economic stagnation and the growing discontent of the population. 3.- Its ambition to establish itself as a leading player in the Middle East and Asia.
Addendum: In the next instalment we will summarize the geopolitical forecasts for the Middle East and the Maghreb.