Frexit in sight

Written by Alfonso Elizondo


In just a couple of months, France will have a new president. According to most experts in French politics, whoever emerges from the four possible candidates – Le Pen, Mélenchon, Macron and Fillon – will do so with very little difference in the votes and will lead the country into a confused and ambiguous situation that will not allow it to remain as part of the European Union. One of its main problems is that there are now 1.1 million French Muslims living in France with a high level of participation in the country’s political life and many of them are radicals. Another problem is the unexpected split among the forces on the left with an anti-Semitic attitude, and yet another is the empowerment of a few big corporations and transnational financial groups that completely control the country’s economic development.


Regardless of who the winning candidate is in the next elections, the basic fact is that none of the candidates has a clear ideological profile, nor do the different groups of citizens that support them. The fact is that the only European nation where leftist parties operated successfully and where the bureaucracy that still operates in the Western World was first formulated has come to an end. So the new ‘Frexit’ will have a far more significant repercussion than Brexit, because the English have never stopped thinking that the good government of a nation depends to a large extent on the percentage of ‘royal blood’ in its leaders. That country was sustained by the great wealth plundered from its colonies; it created an independent monetary system by printing its own currency, became the port of arrival and departure for all trade operations with America and never formed an integral part of the European community.


Just as France represented the origin of the Western State by the end of the eighteenth century, creating the bureaucratic formula to deal with the working classes who lived in precarious conditions, and allowing King Louis XV to devote all his time to his activities in the lavish, libidinous world of the aristocracy, everything is now pointing to the fact that the hypocritical and deceitful life of the monarchs and Western bureaucrats has reached the end and that an alternative formula of the state will most certainly be created.  This new model will lead once and for all to acceptance of the fact that the old utopia of a Christian, democratic, representative and liberal state was only a myth that lasted a little over two hundred years but has now ceased to function for different reasons. These include the dramatic development of modern science and technology in the last three decades, developments in transportation and communication channels and the new digital world, in addition to the high cost of the judicial and legislative system operating in all the major countries. Moreover, after a little more than a hundred years, the system of planned overseas wars, with the high cost of fuel, military equipment, container ships, aircraft, drones and the huge cost of state-financed mercenary companies running the hundreds of military bases set up overseas by the big powers with the indirect approval of the international community.


With all this military, commercial, financial and economic paraphernalia in the world today, the only thing that was not anticipated was the presence of other large countries, such as China and India that make up 70% of the global population. Added to this is the continuation of the Russian dictatorship which still depends on the sale of military supplies and hydrocarbons, which leaves it no choice but to participate in all existing world conflicts to survive, because its food production and agricultural lands are still a disaster. To these two elements must be added the rise of Islamic State, originally created by the US after the death of Osama bin Laden when it was left without an enemy in sight to allow it to operate the traditional Anti-Terrorist State created since the 1970s. A new element of conflict has now emerged for the European Community with the referendum called by Erdogan in Turkey, which will make him a legitimate dictator for the next twenty years and allow him to decide whether the country will be part of Europe or function as an autonomous nation.


Addendum: In historical terms, the collapse of great empires has always been gradual. So we might think that the Western Empire could last for many more years, but under very different conditions than today, as it will have to share power with many other nations and withdraw from all current and potential military conflicts.


There is no doubt that the international community will have to construct  a new world order, where the big powers will find a formula for peaceful coexistence in which the paradigms of striving to own material goods, of arrogance, of hatred and of revenge which still seem to drive Western civilization will disappear.