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The World Order in 2019 (II)

The World Order in 2019 (II)

Written by Alfonso Elizondo

The Middle East and the Maghreb will continue to be one of the most violent regions in the world, so the following issues must be followed:

1.- The relationship between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

2.- The confirmation of al-Assad as the winner in Syria where the struggle between various powers will continue, because there will be possible conflicts between Israel and Iran and between Turkey and the United States. 3.- There is a risk of greater instability due to protests against the governments of Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, the elections in Israel and Algeria and the worsening of the political situation in Palestine.

For its part, Latin America comes to 2019 more divided than ever and with its leaders caught up with internal politics. The region’s most important issues are: 1.- The beginning of the tenure of Bolsonaro in Brazil, López Obrador in Mexico and Duque in Colombia. 2.- The elections in Uruguay and Bolivia. 3.- The worsening of the crisis in Central America and Venezuela.

Continuing with the analysis of global geopolitics, we turn to the Asia-Pacific region where the interests of the two great world powers, China and the US, are hidden, and where the following aspects are apparent for 2019:

1.- The US effort to stop the advance of China, which also involves other countries in the region, such as India, Japan, Australia and the Philippines. 2.- There are negotiations between the two Koreas, which will feature the conflict between Syria and the US. 3.- Japan is waking up from its Peace Phase and undertaking reform to remove pacifism from its Constitution.

Next, we turn to Africa which continues to increase its weight in population, the economy and global geopolitics. The most important trends there are:

1.- Tests of democracy in Nigeria, South Africa, Senegal and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. 2.- An increase in the geopolitical weight of Africa will guide the peace agreement between Ethiopia and Eritrea. 3.- The entrenched existence of terrorism and political conflicts in the Sahel, Somalia and the Central African Republic.

Addendum: After this very broad overview of the situation of different continents and regions in the world we will turn to the key element in the new world order, that is, the conflict between the US and China which Russia is trying to join.