The Future of the New Islamic State (ISIS)


By Alfonso Elizondo

On September 10th, shortly after ISIS took control of the last oil well in Syria, Raymond Wilcox, Nigerian Content Development General Manager at Chevron Nigeria Limited posted a comment on the web expressing the United States concerns in regards to the Russian attacks of ISIS in Syria. That was due to the fact that the US are the ones financing the new security model implemented by Washington to control the Middle East in the recent past two years.


It also explains the continued support of Israel towards the terrorist group in Syria, as well as its constant, yet quiet visits of US senators led by McCain to give them political support, in addition to the open aid provided by Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The real worry for the US is that its terrorist operation designed to control the region could be defeated and gone at any time.


The fear in Washington is that the forces of ISIS will be affected by air strikes from Russia, which could well jeopardize the forces that the US has in Syria, represented by ISIS, and create a new pretext for humanitarian issues after ISIS was trained to unravel its bloody crimes in the Middle East. But the Russian president Putin warned of his intention to strike a mortal blow at ISIS, while Kerry guaranteed that an hypothetical Russian intervention would only represent a major risk to the US and military force of the United States and NATO in the region: however he forgot to say that the only US military force in the region are precisely ISIS legions, financed and armed with American money.


Right now, one year after the Islamic State proclaiming its caliphate, its military and financial resources remain the same despite the decrease in oil price. However, according to experts, this situation, together with the loss of the cities Kabane and Tall Abyad in Syria, and of Tikrit in Iraq have been compensated by the seizure of the city of Palmyra in the Syrian desert, and of Ramadi in the largest province of Iraq, both by the hand of ISIS. According to Hasan Hasan, an analyst at Chatham House, ISIS jihadist group could last a decade or more, although their military forces and its territories keep fluctuating, as a new world order is been organized where the United States may be relegated second stage and the great powers of India and China are included.


After the visit of Patrick Johnston, of the Rand Corporation, the West coalition bombing of the oilfields controlled by the Islamic State diminished its profits; these were soon offset by the extortion, tax collection and sale of goods looted during its forays into new territories. As for the war, ISIS benefits from the vast experience of its founders; among its ranks there are many military and security officials of the late dictator Saddam Hussein, who have more than eight years of war experience against Iran.


On top of that, the IS has many recruits among foreign fighters and has a large storage of small arms, artillery and an arsenal of tanks and armored vehicles taken from the United States Army in Iraq. Let’s not forget the purchase of military equipment on the black market that allows it to operate as a small, yet incredibly agile army.


For its part, Western coalition has a very limited range of action, because their offensive approach is by air and has no ground troops who can enable them to know the territory they attack. So the ISIS has been free to devote itself to attack regions that were weakened, by war, terrorize local communities with brutal executions, while providing security and public health services and education to the people in their conquered territories.


The relative success of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq is due to the fact that people have no other alternative, as the Sunni minority felt excluded from power mainly in the hands of the Shiites. In Syria, the rebels are Sunni community who are against President Bashar al Assad, and in Iraq the government is accused of discriminating against the Sunni minority.


In another context, the Islamic State announced that it has the ability to acquire a nuclear bomb in less than one year, bomb that could be used to attack the United States. According to the online magazine Dabiq, the Islamic State owns billions of dollars in multiple banks and could buy a bomb from Pakistan, through their arms dealers who are linked to the local governments. Once obtained the bomb from Pakistan, they would bring it to the West through Libya and Nigeria, according to what was published by the British photographer John Cantlie who was kidnapped by the IS forces two years ago. Even if the West coalition, led by the US, decided to increase the bombings and raids of the Islamic terrorist group in Iraq and Syria, Washington is opposed to leading a more violent and direct attack because it fears Russia that has taken control of the situation in Syria.


Addendum: The current situation in the Middle East is very complicated, since the vast majority of countries in the West believe that the only universal truth is the one of a democratic republican state, born in the late eighteenth century, and are unable to accept this idea is now in decline and there have been new political models of the state outside of the western mythologies and beliefs. These same models are those leading the new digital world where the word has disappeared, together with it the world of law, history and all kind of myths.