From a historical perspective, globalization has not had a linear evolution. Over several decades of the rapid growth of this social phenomenon, the world has obtained great benefits in many respects, such as education, health, demographics and political, economic and social life. But the gap between the poor and the rich has also grown, and so too has the deep division between capital and labor, as predicted by Karl Marx.
Globalization will undoubtedly continue, but with a different narrative, where China will be ushering in a new era of 'reglobalization' that will bring with it the creation of a new world order of governance. Even though Trump's absurd anti-globalization measures are generating a great deal of uncertainty about what will happen in the West in the next few years, there are now trends indicating that globalization will continue.
One of those trends developing at a rapid pace is the global decline of neoliberalism and the other is China's growth path and the resilience of its political system. In the past decade, China adopted a proactive system to produce global goods ranging from the Shanghai Cooperation Organization to the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank which are part of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership of the ‘One Belt, One Road' initiative.
Faced with growing economic and political uncertainty in developed countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and China, the 'Climate Change Forum' has emerged as a force for creating stability and continuity to deal with the present challenges in the current world order led by the USA, the UK, France and Italy.
At present, given the changing political and economic landscape, where convergence between developed countries had not been seen for two hundred years since the emergence of the industrial revolution, the world order is undergoing a historic change aimed at establishing global governance between the East and the West under more just and equitable conditions.
'Reglobalization' does not mean abandoning the existing world order, a point made repeatedly by China which has indicated that it only wants to safeguard, strengthen and adapt the existing system of global governance to the present reality. Nonetheless, the rise of populism in the United States and Europe, caused by the widening gap between rich and poor, continues to fuel the anger of the poor against the elites. And if it’s not controlled, it will no doubt be difficult or perhaps impossible to establish a world order of governance to which everyone will conform.
According to Marco Rappaport, an expert in economics and global politics, there is a parallel between the current situation and the crisis that sparked World War II. Both Brexit and the measures announced by Trump indicate a return to protectionist measures, and there is a danger that a World War will be started once again to get out of this crisis.
The warnings by most experts in global affairs coincide on several points:
1. The World Trade Organization (WTO) forecasts that world trade will only grow between 1.8 and 3.7% in 2017. Since the end of the 2008 crisis, there has been little or no growth in world trade.
2. Globalization cannot suddenly disappear because technology will continue developing, but it can be stopped if there is no political will in the most powerful nations. George Saravelos, head of foreign exchange strategies at Deutsche Bank, maintains that if the bankruptcy of Leheman Brothers in 2008 was the trigger for the current crisis, this year will be remembered for the appearance of a new megatrend, as globalization has bottomed out and is beginning to decline.
3. The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in Basel, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), the IMF, the WTO and all the country groupings (G-7, G-8, G-10 and G-20) have been papering over the regulatory chaos in the banking system and the lack of institutions for the integration of the world economy. We now have what Ian Bremmer, one of the creators of 'political risk analysis,' called G-0, because there is no leader and each country is free to do what it wants.
4. We are now experiencing what Lawrence Summers, Bill Clinton's former Treasury Secretary called "secular stagnation," that is, low growth and stagnant prices, because of which the debt rises every day, unemployment is high and wages depressed. This is a common reaction of any economy after a financial crisis, as shown by Harvard professors Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart in their book This Time is Different which analyzes financial crises of the last 900 years.
5. Paradoxically, those who voted for the Thatcher wage and tax adjustment in 1977 are now rejecting globalization, on the grounds that the enemies of global integration are the elderly and those with a low level of education, because they have been hit harder by globalization and have lost wealth and cultural primacy.
Addendum: In short, the debate on globalization is above all a debate between the elderly and rural people, on the one hand, and young people and people living in cities, on the other. But if the cities and young people of today suddenly change their paradigms, this stage of the economy will be a very different cycle from the one that began in 1977.